The 48-team World Cup was supposed to crush the small nations. Instead the underdogs gatecrashed the Round of 32 — and the final day still has spots left to decide.
The math was supposed to protect the giants. Forty-eight teams, twelve groups of four, more cannon fodder for the powers. Then the final day of the group stage arrived, and the small nations refused the script.
Start with the one nobody saw coming. Cape Verde finished 2nd in Group H and reached the Round of 32 on their World Cup debut. They did it unbeaten, with three draws, the last a 0-0 against Saudi Arabia on June 26. A population of roughly 525,000 — smaller than any of the 50 U.S. states, the closest being Wyoming at about 576,000. That makes Cape Verde the smallest nation by population ever to reach a men's World Cup knockout stage, and the first since Chile at the 1998 World Cup to advance after drawing all three group matches. The reward is heavy: Cape Verde face Argentina, the reigning champions and Messi, in Miami on July 3.
Cape Verde is one of four debutant nations this tournament — alongside Curacao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. The format is what opened the door. The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams reach the new Round of 32. One win can be enough. Three draws can be enough. That is the whole story of the small nations this June.
First-ever nights for Bafana Bafana and Bosnia
South Africa turned the corner against South Korea. Thapelo Maseko scored in the 63rd minute, a 1-0 win on June 24 that lifted Bafana Bafana from last to 2nd in Group A. It is South Africa's first World Cup knockout appearance in their history, and their first World Cup at all since 2010, the year they hosted. Maseko's goal was their first lead in a World Cup match since the 2-1 win over France in June 2010. Sixteen years between leads. One night to end the wait.
Bosnia & Herzegovina did the same in Seattle. They beat Qatar 3-1 on June 24 — Alajbegovic, an own goal, and Mahmic sealing it. That put Bosnia 3rd in Group B on 4 points, through as one of the eight best third-placed teams. It is their first-ever World Cup knockout-stage appearance.
Australia reached the Round of 32 the hard way — with a goalless draw. The 0-0 against Paraguay on June 25 left both nations on 4 points in Group D. Australia took 2nd on goal difference; Paraguay advanced behind them as a best third. Turkiye finished 4th and went home, even after the USA topped the group. The same points can mean a flight to the knockouts or a flight home.
Ecuador beat Germany and still had to sweat
The best beat of the lot belongs to Ecuador. They beat Germany 2-1 in New Jersey on June 25 — Sane for Germany inside two minutes, then Angulo and Plata in the 77th. Germany still won Group E on tiebreakers; Ecuador finished 3rd on 4 points and went through as a best third. It is Ecuador's first World Cup knockout run since 2006, their best showing since that Round-of-16 exit to England. The team that toppled the four-time champions spent the same night fighting just to survive as a third-place qualifier.
Not every giant is sleeping easy. Croatia — 2018 finalists, 2022 third place — sit 3rd in Group L on 3 points, goal difference minus one, on the bubble. They beat Panama 1-0 through Budimir on June 23, then lost 4-2 to England on June 17. Now they face Ghana today, Saturday June 27, 5:00 p.m. ET in Philadelphia, and the result decides everything. Beat Ghana and Croatia go through in 2nd. Draw and they likely survive as a best third. Lose to Ghana and a World Cup finalist could go home in the group stage.
The final day still has tickets to hand out
Six matches, three groups, the last group games of the tournament. They settle the final automatic 2nd-place spots and the remaining best-third places. The knockouts begin June 28.
Colombia carry the joy into the night. They top Group K on 6 points, the Round of 32 already clinched, and play Portugal today for first place in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET. No scrapping, no sweating — La Tricolor plays for the top of the group and nothing less. In the same group, DR Congo and Uzbekistan settle Group K's third-place fate. Over in Group J, Argentina already won their group and now wait on a third-place opponent — the Cape Verde pairing in Miami. Algeria and Austria play for 2nd place in J.
Then there are the teams already done, sitting on the couch, doing the math. Iran finished 3rd in Group G, unbeaten, on 3 points, and now waits as one of the bubble thirds — alive unless all three of Groups J, K and L push a four-point team past them. Uruguay is already the first team out of the third-place race, on 2 points.
That is the magic the format was never supposed to deliver. A nation of 525,000 unbeaten and Miami-bound. Bafana Bafana in the knockouts for the first time. Ecuador standing over Germany. And a 2018 finalist sweating a 5:00 p.m. kickoff. The Round of 32 begins June 28. Track every result on the calendar, and watch the bracket fill at the bracket.